LifeSim

Appendix B - Expert Opinion Elicitation Questionnaire

The following Expert Opinion Elicitation (EOE) questionnaire was created by social scientists Dennis Mileti and John Sorensen to collect information about the issuance, diffusion, and content of public alerts, warnings, and press releases for dam failures, controlled dam releases, and levee breaches or overtopping flooding in specific communities. The USACE Dam and Levee Safety Program engaged with Mileti & Sorensen to better understand what motivates people to take protective actions during an emergency, and their resulting research – A Guide to Public Alerts and Warnings for Dam and Levee Emergencies (2015) [?] – was implemented into the custom curve generation methodology described below.

The expert elicitation process involves USACE specialists in life loss estimation and state and local experts in emergency response (Emergency Management Agency [EMA]) working together to develop a consensus on the characterization of the warning, mobilization, and evacuation process for specific flood scenarios. The EMAs in those communities potentially impacted by a dam or levee safety flood emergency are asked the below series of approximately 50 questions related to their planning for and standard operating procedures during emergency. These answers help Consequence Specialists identify the appropriate warning and response parameters to use when estimating life safety risk for the dam or levee being studied.

Contextual questions 1-4 were developed by USACE RMC and added to the questionnaire in 2022. These items reduce uncertainty pertaining to severity, timing, and proximity of flooding to communities at risk.

The data collected from these interviews are scored within the USACE-developed Excel generator for the Warning Issuance Curve, Warning Diffusion Curve, and Protective Action Initiation Curve. Each default curve and information about the incorporation of this data into a LifeSim model is described in Warning and Protective Action Parameters.

Question		Response (fillable)
Context-1	Which hazards are present in the scenario?
C1-a	Dam or levee breach?
C1-b	Non-failure releases from a structure that may result in the inundation of PAR?
C1-c	Flash flooding (not caused by releases)?
C1-d	Slow rising riverine flood?
C1-e	Hurricane?
Context-2	Describe the flood severity:
C2-a	Is PAR likely to perceive flooding as life threatening?
C2-b	Will PAR be able to respond to environmental cues?
C2-c	If a hurricane is the risk driving hazard, is the storm likely to be Category 4 or 5?
C2-d	If a hurricane is the risk driving hazard, is the storm likely to be Category 3?
Context-3	Describe the proximity of the impact area relative to a hazard source:
C3-a	Is the impact area within 3 miles of a dam or within 0.25 miles of a levee?
C3-b	Is the impact area within 0.5 miles of a body of water, or within an area known to the public to be at-risk of flooding?
Context-4	Describe arrival time of the flood hazard relative to warning:
C4	Will the hazard arrive within 2 hours of the warning issuance?
1	Which of the following flood threats could affect your community:
1-a	Dam breaches?
1-b	Damaging dam releases?
1-c	Levee breach or overtopping?
1-d	Flash flooding?
1-e	Riverine flooding?
1-f	Other flood types?
1-g	(IF YES) What other flood types?
2	Are the boundaries identified for the areas of your community that would be flooded for the full range of potential flood scenarios?
3	Do you have a general emergency plan?
4	Do you have a general warning plan or annex to a general plan?
5	Do you have standard operating procedures for warnings?
6	Do you have a hazard-specific warning plan for flooding including breach scenarios?
7	Do you have a hazard-specific standard operating procedures for flooding including breach scenarios?
8	Is a particular person or position responsible for getting a first alert or warning out to the public?
8-a	(If YES to 8) What is their name and title?
8-b	(If YES to 8) Do they have legal authority to do so?
8-c	(IF NO to 8) What is the name and title of who does?
8-d	Is the responsible person or position written down?
8-e	(If YES to 8-d) Where?
9	Would responsibilities pass from one person to another if someone were not available to perform their first alert or warning roles?
9-a	(If YES to 9) How would it be done?
9-b	(If YES to 9) How would the people involved know how to do it?
9-c	(IF YES to 9) Is how to do it written down?
9-d	(If YES to 9-c) Where?
10	Do you have a staffed contact point that operates 24 hours per day 7 days a week to receive threat information from those who might detect it?
11	Do your plans, procedures, or other written documents classify threat levels into different categories (for example, flood watch and flood warning), and specify different public actions for each level? Here's an example (SHOW MATRIX CARD) of what I mean.
12	What would trigger sending a first alert or warning to the public?
12-a	How would you know when the trigger is reached?
12-b	Is anything about the trigger written down?
12-c	(IF YES to 12-b) Where?
13	Would you seek to confirm the flood threat before distributing a first public alert or warning?
13-a	Are there written procedures about threat confirmation?
14	Would you communicate with the agency responsible for the dam or levee before distributing a first public alert or warning, for example, so you could ask questions and get answers?
14-a	(If YES to 14) How would it be done?
14-b	(If YES to 14) How would you know how to do that?
14-c	(If YES to 14) Is how to do it written down?
14-d	(If YES to 14-c) Where?
15	Are the name(s) and number(s) of the people to talk with in the agency responsible for the dam or levee written down and readily available?
15-a	(If YES to 15) Where?
16	Do you have redundant technologies available for communicating with people in the agency responsible for the dam or levee?
16-a	(If YES to 16) What are they?
16-b	(If YES to 16) Would any work if the electricity were out?
16-c	(If YES to 16) Would any work if the community were damaged?
17	Do the people who would issue a first alert or warning routinely communicate with the people responsible for the dam or levee?
17-a	(If YES to 17) How often? (times/year)
18	Are the people who would issue a first alert or warning allowed to get that job done in innovative ways if circumstances keep them from doing it according to procedures?
18-a	(if YES to 18) Is their ability to do this part of your written procedures?
19	Do you have unique ways to provide first alerts or warnings for events in which impact could occur in an hour or less, for example, send a first alert or warning out without getting clearance from anyone?
19-a	(If YES to 19) How would it be done?
19-b	(If YES to 19) Is how to do it written down?
20	How many people would likely be involved in deciding and/or approving issuing a first alert of warning?
21	Do the people who have a role in getting a first alert or warning to the public practice doing that job, for example, in drills or exercises?
21-a	(If YES to 21) How often? (times/year)
22	Which of the following ways to disseminate alerts and warnings would you use to get the first alert or warning to the public?
22-1	Route alerting
22-2	Fixed location loudspeakers & public address systems
22-3	Wireless emergency alerts that use the WEA opt-out system
22-4	Wireless emergency alerts that use an SMS opt-in system like Everbridge
22-5	Radio
22-6	Television
22-7	NOAA Weather Radio
22-8	Tone alert radios dedicated to dam or levee emergencies
22-9	Audio sirens and alarms
22-10	Broadcast voice sirens
22-11	Message signs
22-12	Aircraft
22-13	Visual alerting
22-14	Email to the public
22-15	Text messages not including WEA
22-16	Social media, e.g., Twitter and Facebook
22-17	Website(s)
22-18	Reverse auto-dial telephone distribution system
22-19	Tdd/Tyy
22-20	Other
23	The following questions help to gauge the effectiveness of each warning system identified above. (ONLY ASK ABOUT ITEMS SELECTED IN QUESTIONS 22)
23-a	How many patrol cars and officers would be dedicated to route alertings?
23-b	What percentage of the population has NOAA Weather Radio or dedicated tone alert radios?
23-c	Would a significant portion (large percentage or those closest to hazard) of the at risk population be alerted by audio or broadcast sirens or fixed location loudspeakers?
23-d	Have you successfully issued warnings or alerts through the WEA system in the past?
23-e	How many aircraft would be dedicated to spreading warnings?
23-f	What percentage of the public is engaged with your social media activities?
23-g	What percentage of the public has signed up their cell phone number in the reverse autodial system or email notification system?
23-h	How many calls/hour can the reverse autodial system make?
24	If an update to a warning message were not needed, would the original message be repeated more than once?
24-a	(If YES to 24) How frequently would it be repeated?
25	Do you have ways to monitoring what other organizations or people in the public might be saying about the threat to each other, for example, over social media?
25-a	(If YES to 25) How would it be done?
25-b	(If YES to 25) Would you attempt to correct wrong information?
26	Could there be a significant number of people engaged in any of the following activities, in any of the following locations, or in any of the following groups when alerts or warnings are issued, and do you have special ways to provide them with a first alert or warning?
26-a	Boating
26-b	Camping
26-c	Hiking
26-d	Recreational activities near water
26-e	Hospitals
26-f	Group homes
26-g	Prisons
26-h	Shopping centers
26-i	Schools
26-j	Agricultural workers in fields
26-k	Transients
26-l	Homeless
26-m	Unique subcultures, e.g., the Amish
27	Do you have a special way to deliver a first alert or warning message to people very close to the dam and/or levee?
27-a	(If YES to 27) How would it be done?
28	Do you have a way to wake people up at night when they might be sleeping to provide them with a first alert or warning?
28-a	(If YES to 28) How would it be done?
29	Do you have a way to deliver alerts and warnings to people who are hearing-impaired?
29-a	(If YES to 29) How?
29-b	(If YES to 29) What has been done to assist the hearing-impaired in obtaining the specialized equipment or technology they need to be able to receive alerts and warnings?
30	Do you have a way to deliver alerts and warnings to people who are visually-impaired?
30-a	(If YES to 30) How?
30-b	(If YES to 30) What has been done to assist the visually-impaired in obtaining the specialized equipment or technology they need to be able to receive alerts and warnings?
31	Do you provide alerts and warnings in foreign languages for people who only speak a foreign language?
31-a	Are you missing any languages that make up a significant portion of the population?
32	Do you have the plans and technology in place to alert and warn people if infrastructure were disrupted, for example, from a lack of electricity, damage to streets that might be used for route alerting, or damage to an outdoor siren system?
32-a	(If YES to 32) What are they?
33	Do you have example alerts, warnings and/or emergency press releases or templates to use as guides during an event?
33-a	(If YES to 33) What does each of them say?
33-b	(If YES to 33) May I have copies of them?
34	Have you recently issued any alerts, warnings and/or emergency press releases to the public?
34-a	(If YES to 34) When and for what?
34-b	(If YES to 34) May I have copies of them?
35	Would you name a source in the public alerts, warnings, and press releases that you issue?
35-a	(If YES to 35) Who would be named including job title and affiliation?
36	Would you recommend in alerts, warnings and press releases that the public take specific protective actions, for example, evacuate, move vertically, or check local media?
36-a	(If YES to 36) What specific public actions would be recommended for each flood threat level?
37	Would the alerts, warnings and emergency press releases you issue tell the public about any of the following?
37-a	The consequences of the flood and why taking the recommended protective action(s) would reduce them?
37-b	The time people should begin and complete taking the recommended protective action?
37-c	The boundaries of the areas that would be flooded?
37-d	Why people who are safe, but located close to an area being evacuated have no reason to evacuate?
37-e	What parents should do about their children who might still be in school?
37-f	What to do with pets and animals when taking a protective action?
37-g	The weather outside if a flood was happening on a sunny day?
38	Would the alerts, warnings and emergency press releases you issue have either of the following characteristics?
38-a	Would they be specific, for example, if people are asked to evacuate by describing the details of evacuation such as the routes they should take, what boundaries they should cross to reach safety, and the time by when they should get there?
38-b	Would they be clear, for example, by not using words like probable maximum flood, uncontrolled release, and breach, and instead use words that everyone can understand?
39	Would the alerts, warnings and emergency press releases you issue say anything different for people who might be close to where the flooding would begin versus people who are far away?
40	Would the alerts, warnings and emergency press releases you issue be different if impact is imminent, for example, within minutes to an hour?
41	Would you work with other flood threatened political jurisdictions, for example, other counties or cities, to coordinate the content of public alerts, warnings and/or emergency press releases?
41-a	(If YES to 41) How would you do that?
42	Do the people who write and issue public alerts, warnings and press releases practice doing so in drills, exercises or in other ways?
43	Do you have a program in place to provide public education to motivate household preparedness among people in your community who live in areas that could flood?
43-a	(If YES to 43) Please describe that public education program and any material that might be part of it?
44	Would you say people in your community who live in areas that could flood are adequately prepared?
45	Has your community experienced a flood in the last 20 years?
45-a	(If YES to 45) In what year did it happen?
45-b	How severe was it?
45-c	Were members of the public asked to evacuate?
45-d	(If YES to 45-c) What percentage of the total population that could be at risk to flooding in your community were asked to evacuate?
45-e	What percentage of the population asked to evacuate did so?
45-f	How many hours did it take to accomplish the evacuation?
45-g	Did you encounter any problems in managing the emergency?
45-h	(If YES to 45-g) What were those problems?
45-i	What have you done to correct for those problems since then?
45-j	Have you made other emergency management changes since then that would influence your response to a future emergency?
45-j-a	(If YES to 45-j) What were they?
46	Have warnings been issued in your community recently about an impending emergency including floods and other types of hazards that asked people to take some sort of protective action?
46-a	(If YES to 46) How many times?
46-b	(If YES to 46) When?
47	If a flood event were to occur in your community, what percentage of the people advised to take the following actions would you expect to actually do so?
47-a	Move vertically? ________%
47-b	Evacuate out of the flood inundation area? ________%
48	What percentage of your at risk population did not graduate from high school? ________%
49	What percentage of your at risk population are unemployed? ________%
50	What percentage of your at risk population have a median annual before tax household income below the poverty level, which is $33,207 (U.S. Census Bureau, 2026) [?] per year for a family of four? ________%
51	What percentage of your at risk population are homeless? ________%
52	Are there members of your at risk population who live in a neighborhood that is cut off from everyone else in your community for reasons that might include extreme poverty, race, religion, lifestyle, or other factors?