Preface
LifeSim is an agent-based simulation model developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) to estimate potential life loss and direct economic damages caused by natural flood disasters, as well as dam and levee failures. A crucial part of LifeSim's development is validating its results against historic events. The consequence estimates from LifeSim are integral to risk assessments used by USACE to estimate and manage infrastructure risk. Validation studies strengthen confidence in LifeSim's output and provide better understanding of uncertainties in life loss modeling.
Research in flood case histories has yielded tremendous advances in LifeSim's consequence engine including:
- Updated fatality rate relationships
- A refined definition of hazard exposure
- Improved vertical evacuation
- Improved vehicular evacuation
- Updated stability criteria for structures, vehicles, and people exposed to flowing water
Figure showcases nine dam and/or levee failures and their aftermath. Each of these events has been used to validate LifeSim.
Left to right: Brumadinho [?], Kelly Barnes [?], Johnstown [?], Katrina [?], Jōsō [?], Teton [?], Malpasset [?], Oroville [?], and Midland Dams [?].
Validation Studies
A collection of completed validation studies are provided. Each validation study was chosen based on its unique characteristics of failure, warning, evacuation, and lives lost. Table lists details on each study's respective failure, location, date, fatalities, and evacuation performed (if any). All models have been updated in 2025 to LifeSim version 2.1.5.
| Study | What and Where | Date | Fatalities | Evacuation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brumadinho | Feijão Dam in Brumadinho, Minas Gerais, Brazil | 01/25/2019 | 270 | No official warning |
| Johnstown | South Fork Dam in Johnstown, Pennsylvania, United States | 05/31/1889 | 2,209 | No official warning |
| Jōsō | Kinugawa Levee in Jōsō (常総市), Ibaraki Prefecture, Japan | 09/10/2015 | 2 | 147,000 warned 11,000 evacuated |
| Katrina - East Bowl* | New Orleans Levee System during Hurricane Katrina landfall in New Orleans, Louisiana, United States | 08/29/2005 | 54 | Up to 97,000 warned 80% evacuated |
| Kelly Barnes | Kelly Barnes Dam in Toccoa Falls, Georgia, United States | 11/06/1977 | 39 | No official warning |
| Malpasset | Malpasset Dam in Fréjus, Côte d'Azur, France | 12/02/1959 | 421 | No official warning |
| Midland Dams | Edenville Dam and Sanford Dam in Midland County, Michigan, United States | 05/19/2020 | Zero | 11,000 warned & evacuated |
| Oroville | Oroville Dam in Oroville, California, United States | 02/2017 | Zero | 188,000 warned & evacuated |
| Teton | Teton Dam in Madison County, Idaho, United States | 06/05/1976 | 11 | 35,000 warned & evacuated |
- *Note: The Hurricane Katrina validation study pertains to only the East Bowl of New Orleans, Louisiana.
Contact Us
For questions and concerns, please email RMC.Software@usace.army.mil.